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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it secured 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out forming a government with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in the summer over a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive D66, projected to boost its representation by almost five times to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, animal rights parties, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is shut out of power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the election result is hard to predict and coalition talks could take months, analysts suggest that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is expected soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in parliament. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in the house before taking office.