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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."