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The historic Ashes series may offer one cause for celebration, but this series will also witness the Aussie side celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his thirty-first birthday a day prior to the squad was named. Nathan Lyon turns 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before the Brisbane match, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on day two in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is out.

Ageing Squad Interest Grows

For two or three years there has been mounting curiosity with the average age of this team and especially the bowling unit. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test side being above thirty, aside from young mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that older age was a problem: a Test squad featuring a four-bowler lineup with over 1,500 wickets between them is hardly a disadvantage, and it stands to reason that all of those bowlers are well into their professional lives.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the reserve players over that time, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their 30s. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injury, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Transition Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn’t mattered, as the Big Four plus Boland have kept on performing. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous departures, but so far transition has remained theoretical: a process that would indeed be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that had not become visible.

Now, suddenly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the span of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the team management assessment, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could easily be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring strain, the team balance experiences a far greater shift with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two accurate right-arm bowlers give the balance and control that enables Starc’s left-arm pace and swing to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a fundamental shift in the composition of the team. Boland taking the new ball is nothing new in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests entering the attack after seven to eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the man up front.

Debutant Faces Pressure

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an overawed youth, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an simple first match, no matter how many media stories describe him as laid-back. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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It's uncertain, it might all go smoothly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is striking is how quickly Australia have moved from the surety of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the unknown of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. It's unclear what further injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for Brisbane, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress injuries can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be sidelined, with a track record of going down early in tournaments and a history of initially small injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Uncertain

The back half of the series may see the main four bowlers back together and all going well. Or it might experience transition beginning much sooner than the long-term aim of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is apparently the next option and could be a great pink-ball Brisbane option, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also injured and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his crash-test-dummy arm repaired, and this level is no place for easing into one’s work. After them lies the true uncertainty, and throughout it opportunity for the opposing side. You can sense that change a-coming, coming around the corner, and the English team ain’t seen the success since they can't recall when.